Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.759814 21.489275 23.399726 25.686524 28.376586 31.475939 35.370679
2024-12-22 17.044913 19.291107 21.954397 25.414698 29.903950 35.708259 44.116107
2024-12-29 15.232784 17.737988 20.866615 25.198349 31.293370 40.034913 54.634247
2025-01-05 13.936635 16.585080 20.029073 25.050764 32.627750 44.589515 67.720229
2025-01-12 12.807531 15.483788 19.069372 24.508375 33.186347 48.054528 81.081073
2025-01-19 12.358951 15.216670 19.181921 25.492433 36.300818 57.000183 113.961098
2025-01-26 11.656659 14.520256 18.584837 25.263730 37.282096 62.292989 145.071669
2025-02-02 11.135721 14.026225 18.219588 25.330838 38.789082 69.441456 197.509906
2025-02-09 10.717742 13.640525 17.969028 25.536402 40.599319 78.381985 291.950148
2025-02-16 10.317733 13.247216 17.662694 25.589863 42.104288 87.570646 460.633669
2025-02-23 9.891710 12.784133 17.202140 25.297449 42.781168 94.837495 743.881280
2025-03-02 9.570282 12.457207 16.931231 25.316632 44.185219 105.949192 1780.740024
2025-03-09 9.220801 12.071969 16.543252 25.082163 44.979723 115.970147 9682.985092
2025-03-16 8.896886 11.708827 16.166215 24.826492 45.681578 126.783381 NaN
2025-03-23 8.608407 11.385627 15.833504 24.620851 46.483984 139.614726 NaN
2025-03-30 8.353619 11.102213 15.548759 24.479927 47.447983 155.444665 NaN
2025-04-06 8.058136 10.740089 15.104742 23.958470 47.190534 163.623767 NaN
2025-04-13 8.006253 10.764820 15.337550 24.905336 51.699755 220.530127 NaN
2025-04-20 7.788227 10.509092 15.053482 24.685494 52.426367 247.849276 NaN
2025-04-27 7.623849 10.333719 14.903245 24.750070 54.171109 297.751343 NaN
2025-05-04 7.487193 10.197628 14.815481 24.947754 56.496240 377.809334 NaN
2025-05-11 7.339741 10.037032 14.672261 24.999162 58.327167 476.914643 NaN
2025-05-18 7.159649 9.814795 14.401742 24.717986 58.773316 556.176700 NaN